Center Field Addendum

Adding in another guy

When I published yesterday’s piece I knew I was leaving one person out. It wasn’t an oversight. It is a complicated situation. What do we do with Negro League players? In general, the index is ill-equipped to deal with them. There are a couple of good reasons for that.

The primary reason is the games played. The Negro Leagues did not have 154 games schedules. They were more like half. So, inputing these players into the index is not helpful. We did it with Willie Wells, but even then it didn’t make much sense. So, we can still look at offensive and fielding numbers, but those also come headlong into the second issue.

How good were the Negro Leagues? One of the common complaints against pre-1947 players is that they played in a monochrome game. That charge is well-founded. However, that consideration has to be levied in reverse. We know there were great players in the Negro Leagues. There can be no doubt about that. What we don’t know is how deep those leagues were.

Oscar Charleston is usually regarded as the best center fielder in Negro League history (although some like Coolpapa Bell). There is absolutely no doubt that he is a Hall of Famer and should be. What is hard to know is exactly how he compares to the likes of Willie Mays and Ty Cobb. What we can do is compare how much they dominated their competition.

Willie Mays: 3005 games, 156.1 BWAR, 8.42 WAR/162, 104 black ink
Ty Cobb: 3034 games, 151.4 BWAR, 8.08 WAR/162, 57 black ink
Oscar Charleston: 917 games, 48.1 WAR, 8.50 WAR/162, 154 black ink

So, Charleston definitely belongs in the conversation. However, I reiterate our problem. Imagine a big league all-star playing a full season in AAA. What numbers would they put up and what would those numbers even mean? This isn’t Charleston’s fault. He and the fans were victims in all of this. How rich would the game have been with he, Josh Gibson, and Satchell Paige in a big league uniform?

All I can do is present to you the numbers and let everyone decide for themselves. Like I said, the index is not particularly helpful, so we can skip ahead to the offensive numbers to see where Charleston fits. We can imagine that he will probably come out looking very good considering the counting numbers he put up.

Mays: 155 OPS+, 78 Rbaser, .421 rOBA, .747 OW%
Cobb: 168 OPS+, 54 Rbaser, .455 rOBA, .809 OW%
Charleston: 185 OPS+, 12 Rbaser, .483 rOBA, .832 OW%

So, Charleston was a better hitter than both. In fact, when you throw his numbers up against the likes of Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, and Barry Bonds you end up pretty damn close. In fact, we don’t have to imagine it. We can look right now and see where he stacks up.

Ruth: 206 OPS+, -9 Rbaser, .508 rOBA, .858 OW%
Williams: 191 OPS+, 5 Rbaser, .496 rOBA, .857 OW%
Bonds: 182 OPS+, 44 Rbaser, .449 rOBA, .815 OW%
Charleston: 185 OPS+, 12 Rbaser, .483 rOBA, .832 OW%

So, we can say that Charleston fits comfortably underneath Ruth and Williams historically. I’d say 99 percent of the baseball universe fits there as well. However, he was better as a hitter than Barry Bonds. At least that’s where it stands when we look at how they did against their competition. How good was the competition? That is the unanswerable question.

Mays: 185 Rfield, 18.2 DWAR, 17.0 FG, 148 TZ
Cobb: 0 Rfield, -10.8 DWAR, -9.0 FG, 0 TZ
Charleston: 17 Rfield, -1.1 DWAR, -0.8 FG, 23 TZ

This is the great tiebreaker. Mays is so far and above the other two defensively that it is hard to get our minds wrapped around it. The standard is sabermetrics is ten runs equals one win. So, if we look at total zone runs or Rfield we see a gap of 12 to 17 wins. DWAR and FG are between 18 and 19 wins. Why the discrepancy? Charleston played quite a bit at first base. That ultimately put a significant dent in his defensive value.

Where it gets hard for all three guys is noting that Mays was third on the offensive list. So, how many wins did he lose at the plate in comparison to Cobb and Charleston? Judging by the BWAR/162 it ended up being pretty close to a wash.

Mays: 68 MVP, 123 BWAR, -55 Difference
Cobb: 15 MVP, 112 BWAR, -97 Difference
Charleston: 0 MVP, 81 BWAR, -81 difference

This makes some sense because Mays and Cobb had longer careers. However, it is hard to look at these numbers and say that Charleston was good as Mays and Cobb. Still, it is just one test. Given that the Negro Leagues had a spotty postseason record, the numbers there are not particularly useful.

So, I have presented the best evidence we have. The choice is yours. Essentially, Charleston brought the batting average of Cobb with the power of Mays. Yet, Mays brought the defense. I wouldn’t give any pick side eye as there are points for all three. I still would choose Mays, but at least we have included another relevant candidate.